A Synopsis of what it takes to trade the forex market with success

Lets start from the basics. The first thing someone needs is very good education. And this requires a lot of thorough research as there are many sources but not all are worth the money for their services. So in this sense an online forex course could be a good idea along with some books. But here comes the first major problem. Which course and which books, which aspects to cover? The technical analysis issue? The maxim goes with the trend? The candlesticks analysis? And which system to use and follow? There are thousands of them! So before we even begin a trader is confused. And confusion is a very bad enemy but it can be arranged. How it can be arranged? With some simple steps. Such as simplicity. The more you know the better chances you have to succeed trading forex and it all comes down to probabilities.

Education is a must to all trading aspects from stocks to futures to forex. But forex has two unique features. High liquidity and extremely high leverage. And although the liquidity is a very good feature high leverage is not. At least not until you know what you are doing. Here we focus again on education. Besides a participation in a forex course either online or not, an amount that will be put away as an investment for education is the first thing a trader must do. Some ideas are to focus on analyzing the current conditions of the market and to have a bias for a specific currency pair. A system such as following the trend could be the core of a trading strategy. And a demo account with many virtual trades as many as possible for a long period of time is the next step. 

Now the most important part of the trading action is to make a plan, stick to it and apply very strict money management rules because if the capital is finished and it very easy this to happen then our trading career will finish within a few days, months or even hours.

Lets face the truth that trading is not easy. It is unfortunately far easier for someone to lose all his account rather than make wild profits beyond each expectation. That is because emotions and psychology are very crucial for success. Some of the most important emotions are fear, uncertainty, euphoria and revenge. Revenge comes into play very often as when someone loses an amount wants desperately to get it back and often the outcome is that more loses come simply because the trader is on the wrong side of the trend!

Discipline and patience are virtues that distinguish a good trader from a mediocre trader. Without specific goals and a written procedure a trader is like a cargo ship that has sailed without any destination. Someday the fuel will be exhausted and many dangers from the weather to the potential physical damages may happen. Risks exist all the time. The point is how to deal with them.

One of the most useful phrases is taken from the movie Forrest Gump.Life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you going to get!

It is true. Be as prepared as possible. Do not let the brokers excite you promising very high returns and extremely high leverage? Do some very thorough research before opening an account funded with real money. Compare the bid-ask spreads and technical support to name only a few aspects.

Be very skeptical to previous results as offered from many signal services. The major aim should be to learn to trade and make your own decisions and not blindly follow some others decisions and opinions. Confidence and experience come with the passage of time.

So we mentioned simplicity before. Being realistic and having a controlled life balance is very important. One major goal should be consistency so as to have the ability to make profits each month and keep them.

Fundamental news is another important issue and in essence the technical analysis is the mirror of fundamentals. Expectations change rapidly and emotions also. And if you think about it emotions and expectations mainly move the forex market. Most times like the recent Fed rate hike decision a move is under way but the danger is when it will be finished and certainly not getting in at the wrong time after all the move is completed.

The best approach for a trader would be to set specific goals and if achieved then stop trading. The worst idea is to trade in a choppy market where random noise will make it difficult to get specific profits.

So a tested system with very precise rules such as entering exiting and having stop-loss orders may not be a holly grail but is surely one very good approach to start with and focus on it. Pivot points are such a system. At least it is a good start. They encompass education, discipline, strict criteria, and targets and are a proven system that major players use. They are not foolproof always as nothing is certain but they deal with high probabilities and this is very important.

Foreign Exchange Rates

In finance, the exchange rate (also known as the foreign-exchange rate, forex rate or FX rate) between two currencies specifies how much one currency is worth in terms of the other. For example an exchange rate of 123 Japanese yen (JPY, ¥) to the United States dollar (USD, $) means that JPY 123 is worth the same as USD 1. The foreign exchange market is one of the largest markets in the world. By some estimates, about 2 trillion USD worth of currency changes hands every day.The spot exchange rate refers to the current exchange rate. The forward exchange rate refers to an exchange rate that is quoted and traded today but for delivery and payment on a specific future date.

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Forex Forecasting

Basic Forex forecast methods: Technical analysis and fundamental analysis.This article provides insight into the two major methods of analysis used to forecast the behavior of the Forex market. Technical analysis and fundamental analysis differ greatly, but both can be useful forecast tools for the Forex trader. They have the same goal - to predict a price or movement. The technician studies the effect while the fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement. Many successful traders combine a mixture of both approaches for superior results.

Technical analysis
Technical analysis is a method of predicting price movements and future market trends by studying charts of past market action. Technical analysis is concerned with what has actually happened in the market, rather than what should happen and takes into account the price of instruments and the volume of trading, and creates charts from that data to use as the primary tool. One major advantage of technical analysis is that experienced analysts can follow many markets and market instruments simultaneously.

Technical analysis is built on three essential principles:

1. Market action discounts everything! This means that the actual price is a reflection of everything that is known to the market that could affect it, for example, supply and demand, political factors and market sentiment. However, the pure technical analyst is only concerned with price movements, not with the reasons for any changes.

2. Prices move in trends Technical analysis is used to identify patterns of market behavior that have long been recognized as significant. For many given patterns there is a high probability that they will produce the expected results. Also, there are recognized patterns that repeat themselves on a consistent basis.

3. History repeats itself Forex chart patterns have been recognized and categorized for over 100 years and the manner in which many patterns are repeated leads to the conclusion that human psychology changes little over time.

Forex charts are based on market action involving price. There are five categories in Forex technical analysis theory:
* Indicators (oscillators, e.g.: Relative Strength Index (RSI)
* Number theory (Fibonacci numbers, Gann numbers)
* Waves (Elliott wave theory)
* Gaps (high-low, open-closing)
* Trends (following moving average).

ome major technical analysis tools are described below:
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The RSI measures the ratio of up-moves to down-moves and normalizes the calculation so that the index is expressed in a range of 0-100. If the RSI is 70 or greater, then the instrument is assumed to be overbought (a situation in which prices have risen more than market expectations). An RSI of 30 or less is taken as a signal that the instrument may be oversold (a situation in which prices have fallen more than the market expectations).
Stochastic oscillator:

This is used to indicate overbought/oversold conditions on a scale of 0-100%. The indicator is based on the observation that in a strong up trend, period closing prices tend to concentrate in the higher part of the period's range. Conversely, as prices fall in a strong down trend, closing prices tend to be near to the extreme low of the period range. Stochastic calculations produce two lines, %K and %D that are used to indicate overbought/oversold areas of a chart. Divergence between the stochastic lines and the price action of the underlying instrument gives a powerful trading signal.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD):
This indicator involves plotting two momentum lines. The MACD line is the difference between two exponential moving averages and the signal or trigger line, which is an exponential moving average of the difference. If the MACD and trigger lines cross, then this is taken as a signal that a change in the trend is likely.

Number theory:Fibonacci numbers:
The Fibonacci number sequence (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34...) is constructed by adding the first two numbers to arrive at the third. The ratio of any number to the next larger number is 62%, which is a popular Fibonacci retracement number. The inverse of 62%, which is 38%, is also used as a Fibonacci retracement number.

Gann numbers:
W.D. Gann was a stock and a commodity trader working in the '50s who reputedly made over $50 million in the markets. He made his fortune using methods that he developed for trading instruments based on relationships between price movement and time, known as time/price equivalents. There is no easy explanation for Gann's methods, but in essence he used angles in charts to determine support and resistance areas and predict the times of future trend changes. He also used lines in charts to predict support and resistance areas.

Gaps:
Gaps are spaces left on the bar chart where no trading has taken place. An up gap is formed when the lowest price on a trading day is higher than the highest high of the previous day. A down gap is formed when the highest price of the day is lower than the lowest price of the prior day. An up gap is usually a sign of market strength, while a down gap is a sign of market weakness. A breakaway gap is a price gap that forms on the completion of an important price pattern. It usually signals the beginning of an important price move. A runaway gap is a price gap that usually occurs around the mid-point of an important market trend. For that reason, it is also called a measuring gap. An exhaustion gap is a price gap that occurs at the end of an important trend and signals that the trend is ending.

Trends:
A trend refers to the direction of prices. Rising peaks and troughs constitute an up trend; falling peaks and troughs constitute a downtrend that determines the steepness of the current trend. The breaking of a trend line usually signals a trend reversal. Horizontal peaks and troughs characterize a trading range.
Moving averages are used to smooth price information in order to confirm trends and support and resistance levels. They are also useful in deciding on a trading strategy, particularly in futures trading or a market with a strong up or down trend.

The most common technical tools:
Coppock Curve is an investment tool used in technical analysis for predicting bear market lows.

TrendsA trend refers to the direction of prices. Rising peaks and troughs constitute an up trend; falling peaks and troughs constitute a downtrend that determines the steepness of the current trend. The breaking of a trend line usually signals a trend reversal. Horizontal peaks and troughs characterize a trading range.Moving averages are used to smooth price information in order to confirm trends and support and resistance levels. They are also useful in deciding on a trading strategy, particularly in futures trading or a market with a strong up or down trend.

The foreign exchange

The foreign exchange (currency or forex or FX) market exists wherever one currency is traded for another. It is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, multinational corporations, governments, and other financial markets and institutions. The average daily trade in the global forex and related markets is continously growing and was last reported to be over US$ 4 trillion in April 2007 by the Bank for International Settlement

Market size and liquidity

The foreign exchange market is unique because ofits trading volumes, the extreme liquidity of the market, the large number of, and variety of, traders in the market, its geographical dispersion, its long trading hours: 24 hours a day except on weekends (from 3pm EST on Sunday until 4pm EST Friday), the variety of factors that affect exchange rates. the low margins of profit compared with other markets of fixed income (but profits can be high due to very large trading volumes) the use of leverage

Main foreign exchange market turnover, 1988 - 2007, measured in billions of USD.As such, it has been referred to as the market closest to the ideal perfect competition, notwithstanding market manipulation by central banks. According to the BIS,[1] average daily turnover in global foreign exchange markets is estimated at $3.98 trillion. Trading in the world's main financial markets accounted for $3.21 trillion of this.

This $3.21 trillion in main foreign exchange market turnover was broken down as follows:

1.005 trillion in spot transactions $362 billion in outright forwards $1.714 trillion in forex swaps $129 billion estimated gaps in reporting Of the $3.98 trillion daily global turnover, trading in London accounted for around $1.36 trillion, or 34.1% of the total, making London by far the global center for foreign exchange. In second and third places respectively, trading in New York accounted for 16.6%, and Tokyo accounted for 6.0%.

In addition to "traditional" turnover, $2.1 trillion was traded in derivatives.

Exchange-traded forex futures contracts were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded relative to most other futures contracts. Forex futures volume has grown rapidly in recent years, and accounts for about 7% of the total foreign exchange market volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe

Market participants

Unlike a stock market, where all participants have access to the same prices, the forex market is divided into levels of access. At the top is the inter-bank market, which is made up of the largest investment banking firms. Within the inter-bank market, spreads, which are the difference between the bid and ask prices, are razor sharp and usually unavailable, and not known to players outside the inner circle. As you descend the levels of access, the difference between the bid and ask prices widens (from 0-1 pip to 1-2 pips for some currencies such as the EUR). This is due to volume. If a trader can guarantee large numbers of transactions for large amounts, they can demand a smaller difference between the bid and ask price, which is referred to as a better spread. The levels of access that make up the forex market are determined by the size of the “line” (the amount of money with which they are trading). The top-tier inter-bank market accounts for 53% of all transactions. After that there are usually smaller investment banks, followed by large multi-national corporations (which need to hedge risk and pay employees in different countries), large hedge funds, and even some of the retail forex market makers. According to Galati and Melvin, “Pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, and other institutional investors have played an increasingly important role in financial markets in general, and in FX markets in particular, since the early 2000s.” (2004) In addition, he notes, “Hedge funds have grown markedly over the 2001–2004 period in terms of both number and overall size” Central banks also participate in the forex market to align currencies to their economic needs.

Banks & Commercial companies

The interbank market caters for both the majority of commercial turnover and large amounts of speculative trading every day. A large bank may trade billions of dollars daily. Some of this trading is undertaken on behalf of customers, but much is conducted by proprietary desks, trading for the bank's own account.

Until recently, foreign exchange brokers did large amounts of business, facilitating interbank trading and matching anonymous counterparts for small fees. Today, however, much of this business has moved on to more efficient electronic systems. The broker squawk box lets traders listen in on ongoing interbank trading and is heard in most trading rooms, but turnover is noticeably smaller than just a few years ago.

An important part of this market comes from the financial activities of companies seeking foreign exchange to pay for goods or services. Commercial companies often trade fairly small amounts compared to those of banks or speculators, and their trades often have little short term impact on market rates. Nevertheless, trade flows are an important factor in the long-term direction of a currency's exchange rate. Some multinational companies can have an unpredictable impact when very large positions are covered due to exposures that are not widely known by other market participants.

National central banks play an important role in the foreign exchange markets. They try to control the money supply, inflation, and/or interest rates and often have official or unofficial target rates for their currencies. They can use their often substantial foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the market. Milton Friedman argued that the best stabilization strategy would be for central banks to buy when the exchange rate is too low, and to sell when the rate is too high — that is, to trade for a profit based on their more precise information. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of central bank "stabilizing speculation" is doubtful because central banks do not go bankrupt if they make large losses, like other traders would, and there is no convincing evidence that they do make a profit trading.

The mere expectation or rumor of central bank intervention might be enough to stabilize a currency, but aggressive intervention might be used several times each year in countries with a dirty float currency regime. Central banks do not always achieve their objectives. The combined resources of the market can easily overwhelm any central bank.[4] Several scenarios of this nature were seen in the 1992–93 ERM collapse, and in more recent times in Southeast Asia.